On Friday, President Trump’s former national security adviser Michael Flynn pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about conversations with the Russian ambassador.
Once the news about Flynn’s guilty plea broke, online betting markets lowered the odds they offer on Trump’s chances of making it to the end of his four-year presidential term.
PredictIt.com is an online betting market which specifically asks the question “Will Donald Trump be impeached in his first term?” On Friday morning, before Flynn’s guilty plea, PredictIt gave the odds of Trump’s impeachment at 33 percent. After Flynn’s guilty plea, that went up to 41 percent (as of noon, Eastern Standard Time).
Specifically, on Friday morning it cost 33 cents to place a bet that Trump would eventually be impeached, later raised to 41 cents. (If PredictIt charges 41 cents to place a given bet, that means there’s a 41 percent chance of it happening.)